移動平均収束発散（MACD Divergence）

Moving Average Convergence Divergence

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD Divergence)

1. Overview

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a widely used technical indicator for analyzing market trends and momentum. In particular, MACD Divergence helps capture signs of weakening trends or potential reversals when price and the MACD move in different directions.

Divergence occurs when price sets a new high or low but the MACD or its signal line fails to follow suit. This can serve as a signal to judge whether a trend may continue or reverse.

2. Types of MACD Divergence

  1. Bullish Divergence
    — What it is: Price makes a lower low, but the MACD or signal line forms a higher low.
    — What it suggests: The downtrend is weakening and may reverse to an uptrend.
    — How to use it: Look for opportunities to enter long positions.
  2. Bearish Divergence
    — What it is: Price makes a higher high, but the MACD or signal line forms a lower high.
    — What it suggests: The uptrend is weakening and may reverse to a downtrend.
    — How to use it: Look for opportunities to enter short positions.

3. How to Use MACD Divergence

  1. Forecasting trend reversals
    Divergence is viewed as a sign that the prevailing trend is losing steam. If a divergence appears and the MACD line then crosses the signal line, it is often taken as a stronger reversal signal.
  2. Timing entries and exits
    — Long entry: After confirming a bullish divergence, when the MACD line crosses above the signal line.
    — Short entry: After confirming a bearish divergence, when the MACD line crosses below the signal line.
  3. Combining with other tools
    MACD divergence is more reliable when used alongside other technical tools such as RSI and support/resistance levels, rather than on its own.

4. Pros and Cons

Pros:

  • Helps spot turning points: Divergence can be effective for detecting potential ends of trends early.
  • Simple and visual: You can confirm divergence by visually comparing price with the MACD on the chart.

Cons:

  • Risk of false signals: Divergence does not guarantee a reversal. In strong, persistent trends it can generate misleading signals.
  • Lagging nature: Because MACD is a lagging indicator, reversals may not occur immediately after a divergence appears.

5. Practical Examples

  • Bullish divergence example:
    If price prints a new low but the MACD forms a higher low, consider it a sign of a potential reversal and evaluate long entries.
  • Bearish divergence example:
    If price prints a new high but the MACD forms a lower high, consider it a sign of a potential reversal and evaluate short entries.

6. Points to Note

  • Account for market conditions: In powerful trends, price can continue in the same direction even after divergence appears.
  • Confirm across multiple timeframes: Checking divergence on short-, medium-, and long-term timeframes can improve signal reliability.

7. Summary

MACD Divergence is a highly useful technique for identifying trend reversals and fading momentum. Bullish divergence suggests a potential shift to an uptrend, while bearish divergence points to a possible turn down. To avoid false signals, always analyze it together with other indicators and broader market context.

By incorporating MACD divergence, you can make more effective trading decisions and build strategies that are less likely to miss shifts in market conditions.

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